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基金构造坚固防线 利空砸出珠海中富建仓良机

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  问诊公司珠海中富(000659)

  焦点问题

  2月22日,南京海关公布了“2004年度十大走私案件”。其中,珠海中富控股70%的昆山中富容器有限公司涉嫌偷逃的税款达1000余万元,被列入第十大案件。

  受到消息面影响,珠海中富近5个交易日以来股价连续下跌,累计跌幅约为10%。值得关注的是,2004年三季报显示,珠海中富前10大流通股股东被各路基金包揽,甚至上海市企业年金发展中心也持有229万股。目前,珠海中富股价距离除权后的低点只有一步之遥,能够继续保持赢利的基金恐怕没有几家。

  按照珠海中富的解释,昆山中富的偷逃税案件发生在公司入主之前,珠海中富此前并不知情,持有珠海中富的各路基金想必也对“逃税”案件缺乏准备。显然,珠海中富后期走势取决于各大基金的态度,基金联合持股的多头防线是否会因为突发事件而走向崩溃?本栏特别邀请北京群丰投资高级研究员王朝烽,为广大投资者加以分析。

  投资策略

  王朝烽认为,从珠海中富基本面分析,公司为国内PET饮料包装行业的绝对龙头,技术手段领先行业优势明显。同时,公司是国际饮料巨头可口可乐的重要合作伙伴,预计未来五年内珠海中富向可口可乐平均每年供应瓶胚6.56亿只,公司业绩水平有望快速提升。

  虽然“逃税”消息使珠海中富市场形象受到一定影响,但是即便1000万元的逃税损失全部由珠海中富承担,对公司业绩也不构成太大威胁。去年三季度,珠海中富实现主营利润3.2亿元,净利达到了1.18亿元,1000万元的涉案金额远不足撼动珠海中富的根基。

  应该说,众多基金对珠海中富的集中持股,体现了对企业长期成长性的认可。二级市场方面,在事件曝光之前,公司股价走势远强于大盘,体现出了一定蓝筹风范。虽然2月25日消息公布当天,成交量出现快速放大,但随后迅速降低至正常水平,显示盘中机构态度并未发生过多分歧。

  值得关注的是,前期成长型股票生益科技(600183)一度受到大鹏证券破产消息的困扰,股价出现快速调整。但是由于生益科技基本面极为突出,企业长远增长潜力依然受到机构看好,在股价调至低位以后,有大量机构入场补仓,股价顺势走出了强劲反弹行情。

  在企业质地方面,珠海中富与生益科技具备一定可比性,市场走势方面,两只股票也有一定类似的地方。前期珠海中富的连续回落,为机构低位补仓创造了机会,可能出现大面积机构补仓的现象,预计后市,该股可能走出强劲反弹行情,投资者可积极关注,逢低介入。(商报记者 李壮)

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